Until Saturday: Realigned teams rarely win big (2024)

Until Saturday Newsletter 🏈| This is The Athletic’s college football newsletter. Sign up here to receive Until Saturday directly in your inbox.

Fall camps are starting this week, which means the college football season is just around the corner. How might newly realigned teams fare in their new conferences, based on history? We’re answering that question in today’s newsletter.

Realignment Expectations

History demonstrates challenge of changing leagues

Among this year’s teams in new conferences, Oregon looks like the favorite to make a big impact on the football field. Our Austin Meek, who covered the Ducks from 2013 to 2019, wrote last week that “this Oregon team has a shot to be the best of everything Oregon has been in the past.”

But with so much optimism around the Ducks, there’s also pessimism around how other teams will fit into their new conference hierarchies. (I’m looking at you, Oklahoma, even if I don’t necessarily agree withall of the doubt.)

This all got me thinking: Would Oregon be defying the realignment odds by making a big splash and winning the Big Ten in its first year in the conference? Or, better yet, by becoming aheavyweight in the conferencefor years to come? The same goes for hyped 2024 teams like Texas in the SEC and Utah in the Big 12.

History check, in the spirit ofour Realignment Revisited series. Let’s categorize previously realigned power-conference schools since 2000 astrending up, trending down or staying even, based mainly on this criteria: their number of AP-ranked finishes in the 20 years prior to realignment vs. since joining their current home. Let’s also note their records in their debut seasons.

Alphabetically, we’ll start with the ACC

Boston Collegein year one (2005) went 9-3

• Ranked finishes from 1985 to 2004: Six
• Since joining ACC: Three, with none since 2007
• Verdict:

Louisvillein year one (2014) went 9-4

• Ranked seasons from 1994 to 2013: Six
• Since joining ACC: Three
• Verdict:Staying even, counting boosts like Lamar Jackson’s 2016 Heisman

Miamiin year one (2004) went 9-3

• Ranked finishes from 1984 to 2003: An incredible 19, or every season besides 1997
• Since joining ACC: Six, meaningthe pre-ACC Canes had almost as many national titles (five from 1983 to 2001) as these Canes have had top-25 seasons
• Verdict:

Pittin year one (2013) went 7-6

• Ranked seasons from 1993 to 2012: three
• Since joining ACC: two
• Verdict:Staying even

Syracusein year one (2013) went 7-6

• Ranked seasons from 1993 to 2012: five, with a streak of four from 1995 to 1998
• Since joining ACC: one, a No. 15 finish in 2018
• Verdict:

Virginia Techin year one (2004) went 10-3

• Ranked finishes from 1984 to 2003: nine
• Since joining ACC: 10
• Verdict:overall, but not lately, with only two top-25 seasons since 2011

Oh, speaking of the ACC (and then we’ll look at the other power conferences):

What Players Think

Which peer would they most like to swipe?

At last week’s ACC media days,The Athleticasked nearly 30 playersfrom around the conference to share their feelings on their opponents, road environments and more. Here were two questions I found most interesting.

If you could steal a player off any roster in college football, who would it be?

Eight players said Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter, and rightfully so. Virginia Tech defensive lineman Antwaun Powell-Ryland called Hunter “a cheat code.”

Is there a road environment in the ACC you’ve previously enjoyed or are looking forward to?

Virginia Tech and NC State were common answers here. Multiple players referred to Virginia Tech’s“Enter Sandman”entrance as a hype-filled tradition. Florida State earned a fair share of recognition, too.

Read therest of the survey here.

More Realignment

When in doubt, just be Utah

• Ranked seasons from 1991 to 2010: Eight, plus a title claim in 1990
• During Pac-12 era: One, a No. 17 finish in 2016
• Verdict:

Utahin year one (2011) went 8-5

• Ranked seasons from 1991 to 2010: Five
• During Pac-12 era: Six
• Verdict:, because the Utes have been more consistent overall, though the highs haven’t been as high as 2008’s No. 2 finish

The verdict for 2024’s realigned teams:This exercise doesn’t offer much hope for teams like the ACC’s Cal or the Big Ten’s UCLA, who weren’t winning all that much already — though most previous realigned teams were moving to harder leagues, while the Pac-12’s castoffs are moving more laterally.

But, oddly enough, even the realigned teams that eventually trended downward saw some success in their debut seasons (Nebraska, Maryland, Miami). So while the Big Ten’s Oregon or the SEC’s Texas winning big in 2024 would be impressive feats, sustaining that success is the key to realignment.

In particular, Oregon has finished with a top-25 ranking in 14 of the last 20 seasons — including a streak of nine years from 2007 through 2015. That’s a high bar to sustain. Among powers, only Utah and (briefly) Virginia Tech have seen their national success trend upward after switching conferences, but I’ll put my money on Dan Lanning to join that list.

Also, we get to see whether the Utes can nailanotherlanding. They’re BetMGM’s Big 12 co-favorite right now, along with Kansas State.

Quick Snaps

Georgia wide receiver Rara Thomaswasarrested early Friday morningon one felony charge of cruelty to a child and two misdemeanor charges of battery, according to the Athes-Clarke County jail website.

HasEA Sports’ College Football 25met, exceeded or fallen short of expectations?The Athleticwriters respond.

What willFox,CBSandNBCair this season from the Big Ten? Scott Dochterman detailshow the conference’s TV dealwill work in Year 2.

On the recruiting trail,Wisconsinlanded its first commitment of the 2026 class in QB Jarin Mock over the weekend. Learn how he’llfit into OC Phil Longo’s scheme here.

Plus,today’s must-readlooks inside the$1 million bidding warto land the nation’s best college softball player.

You can buy tickets to every college football game here.

Enjoy this? Sign up for our other newsletters! Scoop City 🏈| The Bounce 🏀| Full Time ⚽| The Windup ⚾| Prime Tire 🏁| The Pulse 📣

(Photo: Mike Stobe / Getty Images)

Jayna Bardahl is a college football staff editor for The Athletic. She has worked as an editor and reporter covering Big Ten football and men's basketball, and was an intern at The Boston Globe, where she covered the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots. Follow Jayna on Twitter @Jaynabardahl