Prior to the season, many of us Flaming Bus Followers here at BSD made some predictions about Penn State’s first season under new coach Mike Rhoades. You can review those here. Well, with the season now in the rearview, we have our eyes on the portal and on the future of this Nittany Lion basketball program. Let’s reassemble and address this past season and look ahead at what might come next year and beyond.
1. Looking back at your preseason prediction, what did you get most right or most wrong?
Lando: I was pretty close on the wins (I actually had two less games in my total, but oh well.). I said that they would win most of their home games, but only manage one road win. Penn State, of course, won two straight road games in late January/early February. I was correct in my assessment of Ace and Q, but saying Puff Johnson would be a “solid presence down low” is incorrect-since Puff did most of his damage on the perimeter or penetrating to the basket and creating.
Colin: I was 3 games off (19-14) the record. I completely whiffed on predicting O’Boyle would be a 3-point threat but Zach Hicks had some great shooting games. I thought the defense would be a strength, and although the start was rocky it was definitely much improved by the end of the season.
Eli: I’m not much of a “hope I’m wrong” guy, but I am so glad to have been wrong on my skepticism on Mike Rhoades. While I nearly nailed the overall record, Penn State ended up winning three more conference games than what I had anticipated (which means they lost three more non-conference games). To boot, the team got better and better as the season went on. It’s an encouraging sign given that Rhoades won’t have to cobble up a team in two months this time around. And, if Puff Johnson and Ace Baldwin both come back...
Bennett: I nearly got it exactly right in terms of record - except maybe I can’t read a schedule. I picked Penn State to go 15-16 and they went 16-17. They were a touch better in Big Ten play, winning nine regular season games. I also said they’d pull at least one big conference upset - they got two - and they’d be in the hunt for an NIT spot. I guess they were kind of sort of in the mix.
Tim: I was fairly spot on, overall: They did slightly better than my predicted eight Big Ten regular season wins by winning nine of them, Ace Baldwin turned out to be that star point guard, Qudus Wahab provided a solid interior presence, and the team pulled off a couple of big-time upsets over Wisconsin and Illinois. What I missed the worst on was their non-conference performance, I anticipated they would go 9-2 but instead they went 6-5 which included losing all three of their games in the Orlando tournament, a bad home loss to Bucknell, and the refs handing Georgia Tech a last-second win at Madison Square Garden.
2. How would you grade Mike Rhoades in his first year coaching at Penn State?
Lando: To paraphrase the Dark Knight, Mike was the coach that Penn State needed right now. He handled the Kanye Clary situation well, and bounced back from a five-game losing streak early in the season, and a three-game losing streak in the middle of the year to finish with a respectable record. I’ll give Mike a B given what he had to work with.
Colin: I’ll give Mike a B+ for this season. There were some really bad blunders (Bucknell) but under the circ*mstances, he had a very solid first year here. I thought he did a good job establishing the high-pressure identity on defense and delivered two great wins over Wisconsin and Illinois.
Eli: B+. Bucknell is preventing this from being an A, but the job he did of ensuring the team didn’t bottom out, removing distractions that could have proven, uh, difficult if not dealt with, is to be commended. Not to mention, Rhoades could have easily found himself in “coach of the year” territory had a few of those conference losses turned the other way.
Bennett: I had a conversation with a former NCAA Division III coach who went against Rhoades regularly. He, redacting a few choice words, said “he can really coach”. So I watched the team through that lens all year and I definitely saw it at times. But, it’s also hard to forget the wild inconsistencies. So, I’ll go B+ with a lot of hope for the future.
Tim: I’d have to go B+ overall. It was an up-and-down type of season, which I (and probably all of my BSD colleagues) anticipated. There were times though in December where I felt we could be in for a rather long season, but comeback wins over Ohio State and Michigan, combined with the Wisconsin/Illinois upsets gave us plenty of moments to cheer about and make us feel optimistic about the future under Mike Rhoades.
3. What was the biggest surprise to you this season?
Lando: In terms of biggest surprise, I’ll go with Q. I’m not saying that his ability surprised me, but Penn State has not had a consistent presence in the post for a few years.
Colin: Qudus Wahab for sure. Very solid presence in the post. He got outmatched by the top Big Ten post players, but I think if you put him on last year’s team, they get to the Elite 8 or farther. One of my biggest concerns going into the offseason is replacing him..
Eli: The “Havoc Defense” actually working in the Big Ten. Of course, now that teams have had a season to scout and get used to that style of defense, I don’t assume it’ll be as effective moving forward, but that’s a concern for next season. This season, Penn State gave everyone except Michigan State fits, and that’s something that could be replicated moving forward.
Bennett: The comebacks. Others are going to mention these as their favorites - but this team’s never quit attitude was a surprise, especially with a roster comprised of portal mercenaries. Those wins - like against Illinois or Ohio State - are indicative of teams with good culture. So, I was surprised - and credit Rhoades - for getting that level of buy in.
Tim: I’d have to say going 0-3 in the Thanksgiving weekend tournament down in Orlando. Texas A&M in the first game was always going to be a tall task and I expected them to lose that, but I figured worst-case scenario, they would still come out of the tournament with at least one win, and I was hopeful enough they could’ve won two games. I guess this is where having to scrap together a team through the transfer portal reared its ugly head.
4. What was your favorite moment of the year?
Lando: My favorite moment was unquestionably the comeback victory over Illinois. The “never-say-die” attitude is the best.
Colin: The comeback win over Illinois at Rec Hall and coming back from 18 down to beat Ohio State after the 5-game losing streak.
Eli: Every. Single. Comeback. Penn State has come back from deficits in the past, but this year no deficit felt insurmountable.
Bennett: The second win against Indiana. Super selfish, but I live in the Hoosier state. That weekend, I was traveling to an out-of-town basketball tournament for my son with a lot of Indiana-loving parents. Having bragging rights that weekend was fun. Plus, my BTN went out in the last five minutes of the Illinois game (I kid you not), so I didn’t even get to enjoy the court storming at Rec Hall.
Tim: Anything that combines Rec Hall and a raucous student section storming the court after a big win is a favorite moment, in my eyes, so I’ll have to echo my colleagues and say the Illinois win.
5. What are your expectations headed into next year?
Lando: I think a lot of my expectations depend on which players choose to return to Happy Valley. If everyone who is able to lace it up again in the BJC chooses to do so, this is definitely an NIT team that may play their way into consideration for the Big Dance with a run in the conference tournament.
Don’t worry, I’ll be careful not to say this next year to maintain the Lando Pessimism and avoid jinxing the team..
Colin: If Ace Baldwin comes back and they bring in a quality post player in the portal, this could be an NCAA tournament team. There is a good recruiting class coming in next season as well. Rhoades’ defense fully took shape at VCU in his second year (#156 in Kenpom in year 1, #7 in year 2) with the players fully comfortable with his system, so I would expect to see a similar jump next season. There are variables in play here- whether or not Ace comes back and how the new recruits acclimate to college ball- but today I would say PSU is an NIT team next year.
Eli: Big Ten Title of GTFO. Just kidding. But am I?
Bennett: Stability. Please. Dating back to the Chambers firing, it has been a constant string of different coaches, different players, portaling, etc. Even if Penn State has a similar record to what it did this year, I just want to see things settle down a little bit - or at least as much as they can in this era of college basketball.
Tim: TBD. There’s a lot of moving parts right now in terms of who PSU is able to land from the portal and also who else (if anyone) on the current roster joins Bragi Gudmundsson, Favour Aire, and Kanye Clary by hopping in it. If Mike Rhoades and staff are able to secure a sweet NIL bag for Ace, grab a solid two-guard and power forward/center out of the portal to go along with the other key returnees (Puff Johnson, Zach Hicks, D’Marco Dunn, Nick Kern, etc.) and a pretty good incoming freshman class, then I certainly wouldn’t rule out the Nittany Lions seeing their name called on Selection Sunday 2025.
